IEM Cologne is fully underway and has not disappointed. As always it’s one of the most legendary majors on the CS2 calendar. With a stacked field and plenty of storylines heading into Stage 3, here are my five picks to lift the trophy plus a dark horse worth keeping an eye on.
Vitality
The bookies’ favourite and most fans’ pick to win it all. A Vitality victory would make them the first team to three-peat since the Astralis dynasty ended with their third consecutive major win at StarLadder Berlin 2019 — and that alone makes them the team to beat. The concern however is their recent form in NA, which was their worst in over a year, snapping a 21 event top-four streak. By their own admission a lack of practice was the reason, but whether there is more to it remains to be seen. We should see the world-dominating Vitality back to their best in Stage 3.
Navi
NAVI quietly did something significant recently — they finally beat Vitality. A mental hurdle that had been hanging over them for some time. Whether Vitality were underprepared or not, that result matters psychologically. If NAVI get a favourable bracket, dodge Falcons early, and meet Vitality in the final, their map pool could give them a genuine edge. Arguably the second best team in the world right now and very capable of proving that result wasn’t a fluke.
Spirit
Coming in with serious momentum after winning PGL Astana, including a dominant 3-0 over the newly assembled Falcons ‘super team’. They went 3-0 in Stage 2 without a coach and without breaking a sweat. Going into Stage 3 we will now see them tested against top level competition. The key storyline for Spirit is magixx — his development as an IGL has been quietly impressive, and that win over Falcons showed real growth in his calling. Pair that with the fact that you always know exactly what you’re getting from donk, and Spirit are a genuine threat to go all the way.
Falcons
The lights being too bright for them has been their biggest issue. Despite karrigan’s arrival bringing no tournament wins yet, Falcons have reached two consecutive finals — no small achievement for a roster still finding its chemistry. If NiKo and m0NESY finally show up to their potential without the late-stage nerves that have haunted them, and karrigan can tweak the small things that have cost them in finals, this could finally be their moment.
FURIA
Coming into Stage 3 they aren’t in their best form, sitting at a 50% win rate over the last three months. They enter knowing the pressure isn’t on them to dominate. This is the second to last major of FalleN’s career, which adds emotional weight to their campaign. The key factor is whether Molodoy and the rest of the team can rediscover their best level — if they can, FURIA could surprise people.
Dark Horse — Legacy
Before Stage 2, Legacy beat Falcons convincingly 3-1 at the CS Asia Championships final. The pick’em troll did it again — going all the way to the final day of Stage 2 to advance with a 3-2 record. Although unlikely to go all the way, if the trio of Latto, dumau, and saadzin can play like they did at CS Asia Championships, I can see them going on a deep run and upsetting a few teams along the way.
My pick to win it: Vitality
Boring? Maybe. But history like this doesn’t come around every day — and whatever their recent form suggests, never underestimate a professional bounce-back. With Apex leading this team with all that talent, I expect them to show up when it matters most.
Gabriel Diamond Portfolio 
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